OHL Set to Dominate the NHL Draft Yet Again
TSR Features | 23 Apr 2010
After producing the top four picks of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, as well as two of the top three picks in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, the Ontario Hockey League will be looking to replicate it’s 2008 output in Los Angeles with the projected top four draft picks all calling the OHL home. Add in the fact that with Patrick Kane (2007), Steven Stamkos (2008), John Tavares (2009) and either Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin (2010) all hearing their names called as the most recent #1 overall picks, it’s clear to see that the OHL has a remarkable influx of world class talents come through their prospect pipeline.
This year’s crop has built up considerable intrigue, with a lot of fluctuation surrounding the consensus group of top prospects. Taylor Hall was tabbed as the top eligible player from the outset, although it was anticipated that teammate Cam Fowler could give him a run for top honours. The emergence of Plymouth’s Tyler Seguin nullified that, however, as the 18 year old came out of the gates scoring at a torrid pace, and by mid-season, was already challenging Hall as the best available player for the 2010 Draft.
As Fowler began to slip down to the three hole, Kingston’s Erik Gudbranson began to serve notice of his arrival after some strong play in the first half of the season. A bout with mono and a knee injury limited the Orleans native to only 41 games, but his amazing potential was enough to cement his status in most people’s Top 5′s. After some strong play down the stretch, and then captaining Canada at the Under 18′s, it has led many to believe that Gudbranson could even surpass Fowler as the highest defenseman taken this year. And while the OHL’s dominance over the first few picks this year looks to be a formality, let’s not forget about Moncton’s Brandon Gormley, Prince George’s Brett Connolly or European forwards like Mikael Granlund and Vladimir Tarasenko, who will all be vying to fall into the hands of the New York Islanders, who possess the 5th Overall Pick.
Either way, here’s a look at how I feel the Top 5 of the 2010 NHL Entry Draft will turn out come June 25th.
1. Edmonton Oilers: LW Taylor Hall (Windsor Spitfires OHL)
Nov 14/91 | 6.00 | 180lbs | 57GP 40G 66A 106P
Like many, I feel that the race between Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin is negligible and that Seguin could actually turn out to be the better player when it’s all said and done. With that being said, I have little doubt that Taylor Hall will be wearing an Edmonton Oilers jersey next season. Edmonton already has some strong components in place down the middle with players like Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano and Gilbert Brule, so adding a dynamic winger like Hall to a cast that already includes Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson and Jordan Eberle would really do a lot to give the Oilers two very potent young scoring lines for a long time.
Hall still has a lot to learn about playing a complete game, but there is no question that he has high end speed and is a player who has the ability to make a dynamic play out of nothing. He’ll have a lot of expectations from an Oilers fan-base looking for an identity to a rebuilding team, but he should turn out to be the player that the franchise is looking for with the top pick in the draft.
2. Boston Bruins: RC Tyler Seguin (Plymouth Whalers OHL)
Jan 31/92 | 6.01 | 186lbs | 63GP 48G 58A 106P
Little surprise that the Bruins will pick up Seguin, who is almost interchangeable with Hall at this point. While the addition of an offensive center like him does little to fill the team’s needs, the Bruins would be making a terrible mistake at this point if they passed him up in order to select one of the elite defensemen in the draft. Seguin is a tremendous offensive talent who is exceptional in the offensive zone. He has great mobility and his vision and offensive skills will allow him to be a very good point producer at the next level.
Like Hall, there are still concerns about his defensive game, as he is often passive in his own end and at times dis-interested, but those are concerns that will be addressed quickly with NHL coaching. On the contrary from Hall, however, it will be interesting to see if Seguin cracks the Bruins or returns back to junior for another season. With Marc Savard, David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron already on the roster, GM Peter Chiarelli will have to look seriously at moving one of his centers or potentially starting Seguin off on the wing instead. While he is adept at playing right wing, I don’t think Boston would be hurting themselves if Seguin was sent back for one more season if there isn’t a great opportunity for playing time with the Bruins.
3. Florida Panthers: LD Cam Fowler (Windsor Spitfires OHL)
Dec 6/91 | 6.02 | 190lbs | 55GP 8G 47A 55P
Personally, I would be taking Erik Gudbranson with this pick, but I would be relatively surprised if the Panthers elect to pass on Windsor defenseman Cam Fowler at the three spot. Coming into the season I had really high hopes for Fowler, and was in the club that felt he could be a real threat to Taylor Hall’s throne at the top of the class, but he’s been a pretty big disappointment for me this year. On the surface, Fowler is a big body with great mobility and the ability to move the puck up the ice with the best of them. If you catch him in the right game, you might even think that this kid is about as good as they come.
Watching him often throughout the season, however, has led to a lot of concerns with his game. For a big player, Fowler’s physical game is essentially non-existent. His shot is very average for an offensive defenseman, and he fails to utilize it when he has opportunities as well. While his play in the World Juniors was starting to alleviate a lot of my concerns in his game, his play down the stretch in the OHL has really led to a lot of concerns about his ability to be an elite defenseman at the NHL level. I would be surprised if he cracks the NHL next year, as I think he could definitely benefit from a second season in the OHL, but we’ll see how Florida elects to handle him if he is in fact their pick. I’m not sure about others, but he really reminds me a lot of a player in the mold of Jay Bouwmeester.
4. Columbus Blue Jackets: RD Erik Gudbranson (Kingston Frontenacs OHL)
Jan 7/92 | 6.03 | 195lbs | 41GP 2G 21A 23P
This is a guy who I have stated since the beginning of last year, could be a player that ends up being the best NHL pro from this draft. There’s no doubt that his mono and knee injury set him back this year, but still, he managed to work his way up the rankings and into the Top 5 of most draft boards. I would think that Scott Howson would be ecstatic to pick up a player like Gudbranson at #4, someone who oozes potential and could be the defensive pillar of the future that Columbus has sorrowfully lacked thus far.
Make no mistake that Gudbranson is still raw, and definitely needs at least another year in junior, but if the Blue Jackets can be patient with him, the reward could be huge. He’s a big defenseman with great range and is extremely mobile. He sees the ice well and has a great shot with a lot of untapped offensive potential. Add in the fact that he’s got a nasty edge to his game while being a humble, respected person off the ice, and there’s a recipe for a very good NHL defenseman. Gudbranson will need to continue to refine his game over the next couple of seasons, but a lot of scouts feel that he might have the highest ceiling out of any player available in the draft.
5. New York Islanders: LD Brandon Gormley (Moncton Wildcats QMJHL)
Feb 18/92 | 6.01 | 175lbs | 58GP 9G 34A 43P
Yikes! A QMJHL defenseman going in the Top 5 of the NHL Entry Draft? While there may be some consideration for a winger like Brett Connolly at number five, I really feel like the Islanders would be making a major mistake in passing on a defenseman like Gormley. After being the first overall pick in the QMJHL Draft two seasons ago, Gormley has quickly established himself as a blue-chip NHL prospect.
The main knock against Gormley is that he lacks one real defining skill and doesn’t really scream elite defenseman, but this shouldn’t be a huge concern. He’s a very good skater with great mobility and a good head for the game. Gormley does a good job of advancing the transition game and he’s more than capable on the powerplay as well. He might not be physically dominating, but he’s equally adept on the penalty kill as well as even strength defensive zone coverage. The addition of Gormley to the Islanders cupboard of defensive prospects that includes most notably Calvin de Haan and Travis Hamonic would really help provide a lot of stability to the team’s blue-line moving forward.
With that being said, I really don’t envision to many surprises in the Top 5 of this year’s draft, but there are certainly some players that I alluded to, such as Brett Connolly or Vladimir Tarasenko who could very well work their way into that group. After the headliners of the crop, however, this draft should be extremely interesting as there are a lot of players who’s position could fluctuate greatly come draft day!
For TSR, I’m Scott Campbell.
Tags: 2010 nhl draft, 2010 nhl draft prospects, 2010 nhl draft rankings, Brandon Gormley, Cam Fowler, Erik Gudbranson, Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin
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